Escalating Tensions in Russia/Ukraine

"I'm uneasy about beginning a process of military engagement without knowing where it will lead us and what we'll do to sustain it."
"But I believe we should avoid taking incremental steps before we know how far we are willing to go. This is a territory 300 miles from Moscow, and therefore has special security implications."
Henry Kissinger, former U.S. foreign policy adviser

"I can no longer say that this Cold War will not lead to a 'Hot War'. I fear that they could risk it."
"The statements and propaganda on both sides make me fear the worst. If anyone loses their nerve in this charged atmosphere, we will not survive the next few years."
"I do not say such things lightly...I am a man with a conscience. But that's how it is. I'm really extremely worried."
Mikhail Gorbachev, former Russian President

Ukrainian servicemen train with weapons at their position near Lysychansk, in Luhansk region January 29, 2015.     Credit: REUTERS/Maksim Levin

Both men are seasoned veterans of politics and foreign affairs representing their countries' interests. Each is reviled in their own countries; Mr. Kissinger, as a relic of American policies of interference in Indochina, Bangladesh, Chile, Cyprus and East Timor, considered a criminal through pursuing a right-wing agenda, and Mr. Gorbachev, considered a traitor to his own country whose policies of glasnost were held to have led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union

Both, from their individual perspectives and vantage points, are concerned at what they see unravelling in the world order, with the Russian Federation standing in opposition to the West, through its burgeoning heavy-handed threats toward the sovereignty of eastern European countries, former Soviet satellites. Mr. Gorbachev feels his country has become a target of unfair Western complaints, though he doesn't support the annexation of Crimea entirely.

And while Mr. Kissinger states his belief that Ukraine should remain an independent state and Russian troops should be withdrawn, he is leery at best, and fearful at most of what he sees as the security implications for Russia, with NATO appearing on its geographical doorstep. Mr. Gorbachev speaks of the West having "dragged" Russia into a new Cold War risking outright confrontation.

A confrontation that he hints could conceivably include a serious enough escalation as to involve a nuclear option. Matters are swiftly deteriorating in Ukraine with Russia throwing its troops and military equipment along with encouragement to proceed, to the Ukrainian secessionists. Ukraine's military has conceded its forces were overrun by rebel forces in yet another town while the regime is struggling to hold its place in a strategically valuable railway hub.

The world is witness to the Russian bear ravaging a not-yet-cowering Ukraine, willing to fight back, and imploring the West to provide it with the advanced weaponry it requires to defend itself. Should the United States bend to that plea and provide weapons, the die will be cast and the fears that both these elder statesmen have expressed may well indeed come to pass in some measure.

Should the West and NATO in particular stand back as Russia aids the rebel factions in Ukraine to dismember the country still further, then what exactly will prevail of the world order and the convention between nations to respect each other's territorial integrity?

A woman surveys damage done to a house, which according to locals was recently damaged by shelling, in the suburbs of Donetsk January 30, 2015. Credit: Reuters/Alexander Ermochenko